Galatasaray missed 32 free throws, and lost four games by 35 points

One win in five, and the attack is not the reason

Galatasaray MCT Technic has won one of its first five official games, 1-3 in the Basketbol Super Ligi and 0-1 in the Basketball Champions League. By efficiency the attack is among the best in the Turkish league, and few teams give the ball away less often.

Three of the four defeats were decided by five points or fewer. Where the shots come from, what happens at the free throw line, and a defence that no longer takes the ball away are enough to account for all of them.

Basketball Champions LeagueCibona v Galatasaray MCT Technic | Highlights | #BasketballCL 2026-27

Thirty-two missed free throws against thirty-five points of margin

Across the four defeats Galatasaray missed 32 free throws. The four margins, added together, come to 35 points.

The team is shooting 66.2% from the line against 73.4% last season. Against Bursaspor, lost by five, and in the Besiktas derby, lost by three, the misses outnumbered the final margin on their own.

Last season accuracy would have levelled or reversed two of the three league defeats. A drop in the one shot nobody contests usually points at routine and at how a group handles the moment, rather than at talent.

The team moved to the arc when the arc stopped paying

Last season Galatasaray was among the teams that took the fewest threes in the league. This season it is among those that take the most, and the accuracy has moved the other way.

At 61.3% from two a shot inside is worth about 1.23 points. At 31.5% from three a shot from the arc is worth about 0.94. Every triple taken instead of an attack at the rim costs roughly three tenths of a point.

In the four defeats the team went 31 of 108 from the arc, 29%. Against Bursaspor alone it was 9 of 34.

When the ball moves, they win

Assists separate the one win from the four defeats more cleanly than anything else. Against Cayirova the ball moved and the team finished with 27. In the defeats the figure has sat between 12 and 17.

The opponents did what Galatasaray could not. Three of them finished above 20 assists, and by assist rate the team is in the lower half of the league.

Fewer passes produce more threes off the dribble and fewer balls delivered near the rim, where this team scores best.

The defence stopped taking the ball away

Last season Galatasaray was one of the better defences in the league at forcing turnovers, at 17.4% of possessions. This season it is 14.9%, in the bottom group.

Without steals the easy transition baskets that pressure produced go as well. Opponents now take 63% of their shots from two and make 58% of them, among the worst marks conceded in the league.

The rim itself is protected, with blocks on 9% of opponent shots. The gap sits earlier, between the arc and the rim, where containment on the drive and the timing of the help are decided. In Zagreb the opposite appeared: the help arrived inside and Cibona punished the perimeter, 14 of 23 from three with 10 steals.

What the decision profiles add

The guards read the game well. On the TeamKeys cognitive profiles the group grades high on reading and low on anticipation, the area that covers interceptions, help timing and positioning away from the ball.

That is the profile of a defence that does not steal and lets drives reach the paint, and the numbers show exactly that. It also makes a reading problem an unlikely explanation for the shot selection, because players who see the floor are taking the less profitable shot. The question for the video room is whether those threes come from the system or from individual initiative.

Two profiles cover what the rotation lacks. Smailagic grades high in all four areas, with anticipation and resilience at elite level, and he is the natural reference for playing near the rim. KJ Simpson is the one perimeter player whose leading area is anticipation, although that profile comes from the G League and has still to be measured in Turkey.

What to watch on 20 and 25 October

Strasbourg at home in the Champions League on 20 October, then Bordo Sportif Balikesir in the league on 25 October. Three numbers say whether anything has moved: turnovers forced, the share of shots taken from three, and assists.

The base is already there. Galatasaray protects the ball better than almost anyone at 14.5% of possessions, closes defensive possessions with 76% of the rebounds, and commits 17 fouls a game. A more aggressive defence should not cost fouls, and a game with more passing should not cost turnovers.